1:00 PM ET, December 30, 2012
Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Win or lose, the Atlanta Falcons will finish the season with the NFC's best record.
The Falcons will try to match a team record for wins and finish 8-0 at home on Sunday when they close out the regular season against a free-falling Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that will miss the playoffs for a fifth consecutive year.
Led by a career high-tying four touchdowns from Ryan -- who threw three the week before in a 34-0 home victory over the New York Giants -- Atlanta (13-2) won 31-18 at Detroit last Saturday to clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference.
The Falcons will host a divisional playoff game on Jan. 12 or 13, but they know -- probably better than most -- that regular-season success doesn't always translate to postseason wins.
Atlanta is 0-3 in the playoffs under Smith and Ryan after losing 24-2 at the New York Giants in last season's wild-card round. The year before, the top-seeded Falcons were routed 48-21 by Green Bay in the divisional round.
Smith felt his team was overworked heading into that Packers defeat, so he's easing up on the players this time, giving them three days off following Saturday's victory.
"We'll handle it differently with our workload and the days that we're going to work during our bye week and what our schedule will be," he said. "We're not going to do anything like we did the last time."
Ryan is one shy of setting the franchise record for passing TDs with 32 after what Smith called the best "back-to-back" games of his career. But the Falcons' signal-caller -- as well as Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones and other key starters -- might watch some of Sunday's game from the sideline.
Still, there will be no let-up as the Falcons' goal is to open the playoffs with three straight wins.
"We're going to play the game to win," Smith said. "That's how we're going to approach it. All games are important, and in terms of the importance, does it have no bearing? It really does because we want to win every time we go out and play."
While the Falcons look to match the team record for wins set in 1998 when they advanced to the franchise's only Super Bowl, the best the Buccaneers (6-9) can hope for is to avoid another lengthy skid heading into the offseason.
Tampa Bay, which ended last season on a 10-game slide after a 45-24 New Year's Day loss at Atlanta, has dropped five in a row since winning four straight. The Falcons ended that run with a 24-23 victory on Nov. 25.
Rookie running back Doug Martin, who ran for two 1-yard scores in that defeat, has given first-year coach Greg Schiano reason for optimism -- he's third in the league in total scrimmage yards with 1,766 -- but there are still questions if fourth-year quarterback Josh Freeman can lead this offense.
Freeman has completed just 54.9 percent of his passes this season and he's been intercepted four times in each of the last two games to double his season total.
"I've got to take the blame as the quarterback," Freeman, who has thrown for a Bucs single-season record 3,843 yards, said after last Sunday's 28-13 loss to St. Louis. "Saints game (a 41-0 loss on Dec. 16), this game, not really the brand of football I want to play."
The Buccaneers, though, are a top-10 passing team with Freeman under center. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson deserves plenty of credit for that, as he's set career highs in receptions (69) and yards (1,334) in his first season with the team.
Jackson needs one TD to match his best output and 89 yards to break the 23-year-old franchise record set by Mark Carrier.
"For me to step in here, there's a lot of great tools around me that allow me to be successful," he said. "For me, I just have to go out there, continue to work as hard as I work, have fun, enjoy it and we'll see how the season ends. Right now, it's about wins."
Atlanta, winner of four straight with the Buccaneers in town, is going for its 12th consecutive victory at the Georgia Dome and first 8-0 home record in 14 years.
More from ESPN.com
Jets' Brady hunch in '95 altered NFL history
Because of the events of April 22, 1995, Kyle Brady became a Jet, Warren Sapp went to the Bucs and Ray Lewis eventually landed with the Ravens. Two of those teams went on to win Super Bowls.
McShay: 2015 NFL Mock Draft 5.0
Todd McShay gives his fifth projection of all 32 first-round picks for the 2015 NFL draft, including some huge changes and trade speculation in the top 10.
Bucs-Falcons: What to watch
After watching film of both teams, Scouts Inc. breaks down key elements of the Week 17 Buccaneers-Falcons matchup.
• Try to slow Atlanta's weaponry: Atlanta's receivers have a massive advantage over the Buccaneers' pass defense, specifically their weak group of cornerbacks. Wide receivers have posted huge numbers against the Bucs. The Falcons will probably want to keep Tampa Bay in its sub-package defense, as it just doesn't have enough quality cover guys to go around. Julio Jones dominated Tampa Bay in the teams' first meeting, racking up 147 yards. And Roddy White remains extremely threatening, as evidenced by the 153 receiving yards he produced in Week 16. Leaving either of these two one-on-one is a dangerous proposition for a defense, but Tampa will consistently have to leave one of Atlanta's top three options in single coverage, which Matt Ryan is sure to find.
Recent Blog Posts
|Avg Points Allowed||24.6||18.7|
Team Averages & NFL Ranks
|TEAM OFFENSE||TEAM||PER GAME AVERAGE|
|TEAM DEFENSE||TEAM||PER GAME AVERAGE|
|Pass Yds Allowed||TB|
|Rush Yds Allowed||TB|
Head to Head Matchups (Since 2001)
|Series tied 11-11|
|Nov 25, 2012||TB 23, ATL 24|
|Jan 1, 2012||TB 24, @ATL 45|
|Sep 25, 2011||TB 16, ATL 13|
|Dec 5, 2010||TB 24, ATL 28|
|Nov 7, 2010||TB 21, @ATL 27|
|Jan 3, 2010||TB 10, ATL 20|
|Nov 29, 2009||TB 17, @ATL 20|
|Dec 14, 2008||TB 10, @ATL 13|
|Sep 14, 2008||TB 24, ATL 9|
|Dec 16, 2007||TB 37, ATL 3|
|Nov 18, 2007||TB 31, @ATL 7|
|Dec 10, 2006||TB 6, ATL 17|
|Sep 17, 2006||TB 3, @ATL 14|
|Dec 24, 2005||TB 27, ATL 24|
|Nov 20, 2005||TB 30, @ATL 27|
|Dec 5, 2004||TB 27, ATL 0|
|Nov 14, 2004||TB 14, @ATL 24|
|Dec 20, 2003||TB 28, ATL 30|
|Sep 21, 2003||TB 31, @ATL 10|
|Dec 8, 2002||TB 34, ATL 10|
|Oct 6, 2002||TB 20, @ATL 6|